A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
